Those with a mortgage are facing the prospect of the highest interest rates since 2011, as the Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its decision at its September meeting.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
All four of the big banks are tipping a rate rise on Tuesday, with ANZ also predicting a further rise when the RBA meets again in November.
This move would take the cash rate above the 2022-2023 hikes to the highest setting seen in Australia since October 2011.
While the cash rate might rise to a 15-year high, home loan debt has risen by 138 per cent in this time primarily because of soaring property prices.
APRA monthly banking statistics show the total value of residential mortgages was $1.05 trillion in 2011 and $2.51 trillion in the latest data from July 2026.
A 0.25 percentage point increase tomorrow would add $91 to the monthly repayments for a borrower with a $600,000 loan and 25 years remaining at the start of this year's hikes.
"A 4.60 per cent cash rate takes us back to 2011 levels, yet we're collectively stepping onto the field with more than double the debt we were lugging around 15 years ago," Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said.
"APRA's monthly banking statistics shows since 2011 the total value of residential mortgages has risen 138 per cent to $2.51 trillion, with surging property prices the main reason for this.
"A 0.25 percentage point increase tomorrow will add $91 a month to a typical $600,000 mortgage. That's assuming the banks pass it on, which, if history is anything to go by, is exactly what they'll do in about 10 to 14 days after a cash rate decision."
Ms Tindall said it is the latest hit for home owners who have seen the impact of a series of rises.
"The true pain is in the cumulative impact. Across what is likely to be at least four rate rises for the year, this borrower has to fork out an extra $364 a month compared to what they were paying at the start of the year.
"Owner-occupiers who have let their loan sit on autopilot for years are likely to be on a rate that's over 7 per cent after this next rate hike."
The grim forecast comes as both banks and a large number of economists surveyed pointed to a rise.
In the September Finder RBA cash rate survey 90 per cent predicted that the RBA will raise the cash rate this month.
When asked about the factors informing the RBA's call this September, 33 out of 41 answers pointed to the "stickiness" of inflation, with a rate rise intended to prevent it from becoming entrenched.
Industry experts are also predicting that further rate rises will lead to greater falls in housing prices.
"Home prices are falling, that is a symptom of the previous rate increases that will, with time, flow through to reduced inflationary pressures," said Housing Industry Australia chief economist Tim Reardon.
While the majority of economists and experts surveyed by Finder pointed to a rise on Tuesday, Mr Reardon predicted that the RBA will hold rates.
Jen Melocco
Previously she lead the editorial team for two of Australia's most read property magazines for Domain, and published within premier Nine media brands The Australian Financial Review and The Sydney Morning Herald.
