It's been five years since the devastation of the Black Summer bushfires.
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There were no parts of the east coast left untouched by the terrifying fires of 2019 and 2020, which raged on for months and months as drought and record temperatures combined to create a perfect storm.
Communities were wiped out, habitats were lost and major cities were choked by an unbearable smoke haze.
Thirty-three people lost their lives, 24 million hectares were razed, more than 3000 homes were destroyed and nearly 3 billion animals were killed or displaced.
Bushfires have always been a part of the Australian landscape but Black Summer was truly unprecedented, as noted by the Royal Commission into Natural Disaster Arrangements, prompted by the fires.
"Every state and territory suffered to some extent. The fires did not respect state borders or local government boundaries. On some days, extreme conditions drove a fire behaviour that was impossible to control," the royal commission's report said.
Worryingly, the royal commission has warned such events are likely to be repeated in the future and may even be more severe.
"A future where such events will, regrettably, be more frequent and more severe. Consecutive and compounding natural disasters will place increasing stress on existing emergency management arrangements," the commission's report said.
In the summers since the 2019/20 bushfires, the weather across the east coast has not reached the blistering heights of that dreadful summer. There has been a lot more rain over this time and many parts of the east coast are not in drought like they were during that summer.
But authorities are warning against complacency because while the conditions might not be the same as Black Summer, the threat remains present.
What was the outlook in 2019/20?
Every season AFAC, the national council for fire and emergency services in Australia and New Zealand, releases an outlook on the bushfire risk.
The damaging Black Summer bushfires were foreshadowed in fire season outlooks in 2019.
That year, rainfall was very much below average over most of the continent, and it was the second-driest year since rainfall records began in 1990.
Most of the east coast of Australia had above-normal fire potential. These forecasts turned out to be right, with very few areas left unaffected by the fires.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said in the lead-up to the Black Summer bushfires, there had been a dry summer in 2018-19 followed by a very dry winter. He said the fires started much earlier than anticipated and had settled into the landscape.
"Heading into Christmas of Black Summer, there were already fires in the landscape... and once they're in those remote areas until it rains they can't get around them," he said.
"There's not the same dryness in the vegetation over such a wide area ... when the vegetation is really dry it means when lightning strikes in there, once the fire goes it will go more rapidly so it's harder to get around."
NSW Rural Fire Service commissioner Rob Rogers reflected on the five-year anniversary of the fires.
He sent out a message on the anniversary of the deaths of NSW RFS volunteers Andrew O'Dwyer and Geoffrey Keaton from the Horsley Park Brigade who were killed while fighting the fires.
"The Black Summer bushfires tested us in ways we could never have imagined," Commissioner Rogers said.
"We saw unprecedented fire behaviour, destruction and loss, but we also witnessed the extraordinary dedication of our members and the support of people from across Australia and the world.
"We remember our fallen colleagues with deep sadness and pride. Their sacrifices remind us of the importance of the work we do and why we all must remain vigilant and prepared as we face future fire seasons."
What is the outlook for this summer?
For the 2024-25 summer seasons, most of the east coast has an average risk of bushfire for the summer. However, there are parts of central northern and central southern NSW at an increased risk.
This includes an area west of Griffith and north of Dubbo and Cobar. A lot of Victoria is at risk, including the Mornington Peninsula and south-west Gippsland. A massive blaze has already engulfed about half of the iconic Grampians ranges at the time of writing.
The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast both a warmer-than-average and wetter-than-average across most of the country.
But the bushfire seasonal outlook warns that fires can occur anywhere.
"Communities are encouraged to be vigilant and stay alert this summer even if in areas of Australia showing normal risk of fire as catastrophic fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons," the outlook said.
Mr Webb said a fire could wreak havoc in one afternoon if the weather allowed for it.
"The important thing with any of these outlooks and it's a really challenging story to tell around preparedness, is that we know a normal fire season in Australia still gets fires," he said.
"It doesn't take too much when you've got 45 degrees and lots of strong wings to get a fire going. It may not be as strong as it would be with bone-dry vegetation, but it will still go."
It is a message shared by the head of the ACT Rural Fire Service.
"The last four years we've been very lucky since the 2019/20 season where that was our last real danger period. We've had wet seasons since," ACT Rural Fire Service chief officer Rohan Scott said.
"When we say average fire conditions, that means we are still going to get fires [but] they're not going to be the fires we had in 19/20 due to the state of the fuel."
Mr Webb said one of the most vital things going into any fire season was the ability for states to share and coordinate resources. He said this had become more streamlined over recent years.
"The resources to train, the ability to share... that is one of the things that is absolutely vital that we're going to have to rely on in future years," he said.
The Royal Commission into Natural Disaster Arrangements made a series of recommendations around national coordination in responding to natural disasters.
It found a national approach was needed and Australians expected greater leadership from the federal government, despite states and territories holding primary responsibility for emergency management.
"Achieving an effective national approach to natural disasters requires a clear, robust and accountable system capable of both providing a comprehensive understanding of, and responding to, the aggregated risks associated with mitigation, preparation for, response to and recovery from natural disasters," the report said.
"Unprecedented is not a reason to be unprepared. We need to be prepared for the future."
