Polls and parties: After 2019, what to believe and what to expect

Which leads to the immediate question: Can this be true?

And then the question which is more of a statement: Haven't we been here before, in 2019?

It is déjà vu all over again with the polls. And then, it is not. Labor party insiders say this time is different.

Let's have a look.

Newspoll had Labor in the lead on two-party preferred all the way up to polling day on May 18, 2019. There were high expectations that the ALP was headed to victory.

The day before, May 17, Labor was just ahead, 51.5 per cent to 48.5.

The gap had been narrowing well before the election. The downward trajectory started on December 9, 2018, when the ALP had a commanding lead of 55 per cent to 45. It was six months of going south, but as soon as the election was called in early April the polls tightened.

But the polls were wrong. And we will get to that later.

Scott Morrison was a newish leader, although he was a known entity as treasurer and strongman of immigration. He was not standing on his record as leader, whereas Bill Shorten had been opposition leader since Kevin Rudd lost office.

Both were involved in upheaval within their parties, but Mr Shorten was successfully painted as too much of a risk to voters. The Labor review of the election loss, by Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill, pointed to many policies and voter confusion about what Labor stood for.

"Labor lost the election because of a weak strategy that could not adapt to the change in Liberal leadership, a cluttered policy agenda that looked risky and an unpopular leader," the review summed up.

Clive Palmer's advertising behemoth did not help the ALP either, and it will be curious to see the impact of it and his UAP candidates' preferences this time around. Current advertisements have a go at both Labor and the Coalition.

In 2019, Mr Palmer shifted two weeks from polling day to just targeting Labor. He has not pulled a similar move in 2022.

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So Mr Morrison supposedly has history proving he can shift votes with days to spare. But does he?

The pollsters admit they got it wrong last time. There was no shift. The Coalition was always ahead in the final weeks. It was a virtual wipe-out in Queensland.

Robocall and internet polling led to inaccuracies.

"There was an industry-wide failure to predict the result of the 2019 election, with a persistent bias towards a Labor victory," the review of the 2019 Labor loss stated.

Further, there was a feedback loop.

"The persistent Labor lead in Newspoll (and other published polls) created a mindset dominated by high expectations of a Labor victory, and this affected the party's ability to process research findings that ran counter to this," the review found.

The pollsters have promised the technical errors are fixed, but really we will only find out for certain after May 21.

The difference now, two weeks out from polling day, is that the polls' two-party-preferred gap is wider. Labor is up 54 per cent to 46. The latest jump on Monday to the ALP could be an interest-rate-rise blip, but if you believe the polls, the reading is that the gotcha questions have not shifted anything for Mr Albanese.

Mr Morrison is standing on a full-term record. The interest in independents could skew results and make a majority government less likely for either side.

The biggest thing he is offering this election is himself, and he is seen as a liability.

The Prime Minister knows this, as evidenced by his pitch: You may not like me but you need me.

Labor has deliberately played it safe this time around. Perhaps too safe. The small-target leader and party.

World crises, including war in Europe, usually favour the incumbent.

The polls are currently not in the Coalition's favour, but it's still early and the outcome is questionable. The Prime Minister is a fighter, especially when his back is against the wall, and is expected to change the current dynamic. Who knows how? The campaign is getting into dangerous territory.

The great undecideds are closing on a decision. Early voting is now underway. It still feels like anything can happen.