JOHN Barilaro and Steve Whan have both been fortunate enough to represent Monaro in NSW Parliament, but when the clock ticks over to 6pm tomorrow evening, it will come as a death knell for one of their political careers.
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Country Labor candidate Steve Whan has said if he loses this election, he'll give up on trying to win back the seat he held from 2003 to 2011 and retire from NSW politics altogether. His Nationals' counterpart and the current Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, has made a similar promise; he committed to only ever seeking two terms in the mini-bellwether on Monaro, and told The Queanbeyan Age this week it was now do or die for his political career.
And with polls predicting a state-wide swing against the Baird Government of up to 10 per cent, Mr Barilaro's skinny, 2pc margin in Monaro has set him a tough challenge to hold the seat.
"There's no doubt in the Monaro that I'm the underdog," Mr Barilaro said.
"But I don't think it's an accident that in 25 out of 28 state elections, this seat has stayed with Government, and federally, for 44 years. It's a very intelligent electorate, and I think it understands the importance of having a local member in government. So if people think that Mike Baird will be the premier come Saturday, it's always best if this seat is represented in government," he said.
Mr Barilaro's task is likely to be made even tougher with federal government issues increasingly filtering down into state elections, and Abbott Government cuts to the federal public service negatively affecting the local workforce. It's set to be an advantage to his rival Steve Whan, however Mr Whan said the Monaro couldn't be relied upon to follow the predicted state-wide swing.
"I've been here for a long time in the Monaro, and I never take the electorate for granted. It's certainly going to be tough and I think it's still close," he said.
"All the indications are that the state-wide swing wouldn't carry over the same into Monaro: it didn't in the last election. I got half the state-wide swing against me in this electorate at the last election, which shows that it moves differently."
That's also given Mr Barilaro strong cause for hope that he can hold the seat.
"You've got to remember, even though I've got a two per cent margin, Steve was a very popular local member. We beat him with a swing of around 8 per cent, while the state-wide swing was over 16 pc at the time. So this seat doesn't swing with the state average. Two per cent could be enough," he said.
The marginal status of Monaro has made it the most bet upon seat for betting company Sportsbet, with over 100 bets and thousands of dollars staked on the outcome. At time of print, the odds had Steve Whan ahead $1.52 to Mr Barilaro's $2.44, although Sportsbet spokesperson Will Byrne said that's narrowed considerably since markets opened in October last year, when Mr Barliaro was placed at $7 to Mr Whan's $1.07. Around 70pc of bets placed favour Mr Whan to win, Mr Byrne said.
With campaigning now entering it's final stages, both major party candidates say they're relying on their record in the region to sway voters. Mr Whan said the "Abbott factor" and the NSW Government's proposed 99-year lease of electricity poles and wires (see separate story, inside) would prove decisive at this election.
"I believe the Abbott factor is quite significant here in Queanbeyan. That's what people are telling me here. And we are seeing exactly the same policies at state and federal levels.
"Tony Abbott and Mike Baird- they're mates, they surf together, and they follow exactly the same policies, and that's the critical thing. They cut back government services, they privatise our assets, and it's a message that comes the same from both of them and it will play as a significant issue at this election."
Meanwhile, Mr Barilaro said his track record on tackling Mr Fluffy asbestos, part funding the Ellerton Drive Extension and increasing cross-border coopeartion on health to bring extra services to Queanbeyan would be enough to get him over the line.
"I think over the whole four years you'll see that we've tackled the big issues. I haven't hid anything away or pushed down the road the big issues that have been dogging this electorate," he said.
"Regardless of what happens on Saturday, I've grown so much and learned so much from the wider Monaro community, which I think will change me for the rest of my life," he said.