A cut in the bank's cash rate from 2.5 per cent to 2 per cent would bring the standard discounted home loan rate below 5 per cent, knocking $53 off the cost of servicing a $350,000 loan.

Although the latest official figures show Australia's unemployment rate falling, the Reserve Bank's preferred measure shows it continuing to climb.

The bank averages the unemployment rate for each quarter and compares it with the average for the previous quarter.

Board members will be told on Tuesday that over the past year the average unemployment rate has climbed from 5.9 per cent to 6 per cent to 6.1 per cent to 6.2 per cent. The averages mean that abstracted from monthly "noise" there has been no let up in the pace at which unemployment is climbing.

The board will be told economic growth figures released since it last met show the annualised pace of growth slipping from 3.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent in the space of six months.

The bank's previous forecast of rising economic growth published in November is now regarded as out of date and will be revised when new forecasts are issued on Friday.

No lift in business confidence

Board members will be told that neither consumer nor business confidence has lifted since the budget, as would be needed for economic growth to climb back to its long-term trend.

Retail sales are solid but not spectacular, maintained by discounting and weighed down by low wage growth and rising unemployment.

Inflation provides no impediment to cutting rates. The headline rate is now just 1.7 per cent after the collapse in oil prices. Importantly, the bank expects lower oil prices to continue to weigh down on inflation as they feed through into a myriad other prices, something it did not expect late last year when it looked as if the collapse in the oil price would be less severe.

Rather than focusing on the unexpectedly high rate of so-called underlying inflation in the December quarter, the bank is paying special attention to the rate of inflation on so called "non-tradables" - products that are not internationally traded, which is well down on where it was a year ago, reflecting low wage growth and weak consumer demand.

"Tradables" inflation, the rate on products that are internationally traded, is now negative despite the lower dollar.

The bank is minded to cut its cash rate despite doubts about its effectiveness in boosting the economy. It is concerned that another cut may simply reignite the investor housing market and it fears it could fail in its objective of encouraging businesses and consumers to borrow and spend more. While a  boost to the economy from the budget would be preferable, it isn't likely.

Another impediment is the statement the bank released after its December board meeting, saying "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates".

The bank believes that enough has changed since December to release it from the commitment. The oil price has collapsed, economic growth has weakened, and the steam has gone out of inflation.

It believes that if it is clear it has to cut rates, there is little  point in waiting. And it is also concerned that if it doesn't cut when it is clear it should, the Australian dollar will head back up after dropping.

Canada has just cut its cash rate to 0.75 per cent. Denmark has just cut its rate to minus 0.5 per cent. The United States is keeping its rate at 0.25 per cent. An Australian cash rate maintained at 2.5 per cent in the face of these moves would give the dollar support the bank would prefer it not to have.

The final decision will up be made by the nine members of the board, including the newly appointed treasury secretary John Fraser, who will meet in Sydney on Tuesday.

If they decide to keep the cash rate at 2.5 per cent in the face of recent developments, they are likely to indicate they intend to cut it soon, in March. But it is more likely that they will cut on Tuesday.

Peter Martin is economics editor of The Age.

Twitter: @1petermartin